1st Edition
Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals
This book surveys what executives who make decisions based on forecasts and professionals responsible for forecasts should know about forecasting. It discusses how individuals and firms should think about forecasting and guidelines for good practices. It introduces readers to the subject of time series, presents basic and advanced forecasting models, from exponential smoothing across ARIMA to modern Machine Learning methods, and examines human judgment's role in interpreting numbers and identifying forecasting errors and how it should be integrated into organizations.
This is a great book to start learning about forecasting if you are new to the area or have some preliminary exposure to forecasting. Whether you are a practitioner, either in a role managing a forecasting team or at operationally involved in demand planning, a software designer, a student or an academic teaching business analytics, operational research, or operations management courses, the book can inspire you to rethink demand forecasting.
No prior knowledge of higher mathematics, statistics, operations research, or forecasting is assumed in this book. It is designed to serve as a first introduction to the non-expert who needs to be familiar with the broad outlines of forecasting without specializing in it. This may include a manager overseeing a forecasting group, or a student enrolled in an MBA program, an executive education course, or programs not specialising in analytics. Worked examples accompany the key formulae to show how they can be implemented.
Key Features:
- While there are many books about forecasting technique, very few are published targeting managers. This book fills that gap.
- It provides the right balance between explaining the importance of demand forecasting and providing enough information to allow a busy manager to read a book and learn something that can be directly used in practice.
- It provides key takeaways that will help managers to make difference in their companies.
Part 1. Introduction 1. Introduction 2. The forecasting workflow 3. Choice under uncertainty 4. A simple example Part 2. Forecasting basics 5. Know your time series 6. Time series components 7. Time series decomposition Part 3. Forecasting models 8. Low hanging fruit: simple forecasts 9. Exponential Smoothing 10. ARIMA models 11. Causal models and predictors 12. Count data and intermittent demand 13. Forecasting hierarchies 14. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning 15. Long, multiple and non-periodic seasonal cycles 16. Human judgment Part 4. Forecasting quality 17. Error measures 18. Forecasting competitions Part 5. Forecasting organisation 19. Leading forecasters and forecasting teams 20. Sales and operations planning 21. Why does forecasting fail? Part 6. Learning More 22. Learning more
Biography
Dr. Bahman Rostami-Tabar is an Associate Professor in Data and Management Science, at Cardiff University, UK.
Dr. Stephan Kolassa is a Data Science Expert at SAP, Switzerland and Honorary Researcher at Lancaster University, UK. In 2023 Dr. Kolassa was named a Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters.
Prof. Enno Siemsen is the Patrick A. Thiele Distinguished Chair in Business, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA.
"Delivering the elements of demand forecasting in a clear, logical, and engaging manner, this book provides a thorough assessment of the science and the process behind this essential business function, while critically exposing its potential pitfalls."
- Michael Gilliland, Editor-in-Chief, Foresight"Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals is an excellent introduction to all subjects related to forecasting. It will give you a broad view of the various underlying qualitative and quantitative aspects, with strong academic references."
- Nicholas Vandeput, Founder, SupChains"This is a balanced, practical and well-informed review of forecasting. I recommend this book without hesitation to any manager who needs to quickly grasp what forecasting is about, and how to get the most out if it."
- Dr. Steve Morlidge, Founder, CatchBull Ltd"This book covers all methodological and managerial aspects in professional forecasting. Often the second most accurate method is best, in order to generate organizational trust in the forecasts. This crucial aspect permeates the entire book."
- Christian Schäfer, Professor of Quantitative Management, Baden-Württemberg Cooperative State University"This book offers a fantastic compilation of the advances in business forecasting. I especially enjoyed the chapter on 'Forecasting organisation' which offers valuable insights for executives and professionals towards putting their forecasts into practice."
- Fotios Petropoulos, Professor of Management Science, University of Bath and University of Nicosia"The authors' experience of tackling real demand forecasting problems shines through this lucid book, which covers all the essential forecasting ideas needed by practitioners and students. It forms an indispensable resource for anyone involved in demand forecasting and planning."
- John Boylan, DIrector, Lancaster Centre for Marketing Analytics and Forecasting“When executives focus on demand planning, much discussion is around the ROI on relative investments in people and technology. This book calls out the real challenge to demand forecasting - the managerial processes and the decisions made from the data reviewed. Too often forecasting accuracy metrics are used as a tool to evaluate performance based upon accuracy, rather than data that helps inform cross-functional business decisions to continuously improve performance.”
- Susan Rankin, Senior Director, Kimberly-Clark"Want to make sense of the numbers and make smarter decisions? Look no further than this guide to the forecasting process. From data gathering to model selection, this book covers everything you need to know to make informed decisions and stay ahead of the curve."
- Johann Robette, Customer Success Manager, VEKIA"The authors, all well-known forecasters, have provided a gem in which they achieve a balance of breaking down complex content without oversimplifications. I don't know any other book that considers the forecasting problem from such a holistic perspective."
- Tim Januschowski, Director Pricing Platform, Zalando"Overall, Demand Forecasting for Executives and Professionals is a welcome addition and should be on the reading list of every budding forecasting executive. I can recommend it as an excellent introduction to both the science and practice of forecasting. For the demand planner new to the field, there is an introduction to forecasting principles that will guide their professional lives. It should help bridge the gap between those engaged in the highly technical areas of modern forecasting and those tasked with managing those processes. And for anyone who has to explain the intricacies of the forecasting process, this book can better equip them to tackle such questions head-on."
Simon Spavound, Head of Data Science, Peak, U.S.A, Foresight, The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Q1 2024.
