1st Edition
Theories of Change in Reality Strengths, Limitations and Future Directions
For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community—where the approach originated—to provide their perspective on the strengths and limitations of the approach and its future directions. To provide these perspectives, we asked nearly 30 of the world’s leading evaluators and programme theorists to provide a short essay on the past, present, and future of theories of change. This book presents their insights organized into five main themes: the use of theories of change in broader public policy contexts; using theories of change to establish causality; developing theories of change reflective of multiple stakeholder perspectives; using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes; and applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes. By sharing these diverse perspectives, the book aims to both provide evaluators and emerging programme theorists with critical perspectives to inform future practice.
The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.
Foreword
EMILY GATES, KIRUBA MURUGAIAH, AND KATHY CHAU ROHN
PART 1: Introduction
ANDREW KOLEROS, MARIE-HÉLÈNE ADRIEN AND TONY TYRRELL
PART 2: Considerations in using theories of change to establish causality
1 Setting the stage for contribution claims
THOMAS DELAHAIS
2 Using theories of change to assess causality in a policy change context
CARLISLE J. LEVINE
3 My perspective on theories of change
MARKUS PALENBERG
4 Theories of change between critical thinking and social practices
PETER DAHLER-LARSEN
5 How deep is your ontology? How ontological thinking can improve how evaluators use theories of change
TOM LING
PART 3: Using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes
6 Theory of change for sustainable business
JENS ANDERSSON
7 Upcycling theory of change for impact investment and early stage ventures
PENNY HAWKINS AND ZAZIE TOLMER
8 Strategy-level theories of change require a focus on systems change: An actor-based approach can help
ANDREW KOLEROS
9 Evaluating the use of artificial intelligence and big data in policy making: Unpacking black boxes and testing white boxes
FRANS L. LEEUW
10 Developing, representing, and using theories of change for interventions in complex systems
PATRICIA ROGERS
PART 4: Adapting theories of change for use in broader public policy contexts
11 Theories of change in evaluation of local government reforms
KURT HOULBERG AND OLAF RIEPER
12 Theories of change and the evaluation of sustainable impact: Moving beyond simplicity in development cooperation
PETER VAN DER KNAAP
13 Use of theory of change as a management tool for government multiyear development plans: The case of Brazil’s Federal Development Plan
LYCIA LIMA AND MARINA LAFER
14 Theories of change in complex macro public-sector planning settings in Africa: How useful are they?
CANDICE MORKEL
15 Simple heuristics for drafting theories of change: A case of behavioural insights into food waste
KAROL OLEJNICZAK AND IGOR LYUBASHENKO
PART 5: Applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes
16 The law of the instrument: Would you rather be a theory or a nail?
GORDON FREER
17 3ie: A ‘balloon-squeezing’ approach to the theory of change
MARIE MOLAND GAARDER
18 Integrating theories of change in programme management and delivery
MARK OLDENBEUVING
19 Theories of change: Who needs them? Or: What evaluators can learn from opera
BURT PERRIN
20 How to ensure no-one uses your theory of change: Lessons from the front lines of theory of change facilitation and possibilities for renewal
MARY TANGELDER
21 Why do we have theories of change of the programme intervention but not of the intervention that is the evaluation?
BOB WILLIAMS
PART 6: Developing theories of change that reflect multiple stakeholder perspectives
22 Participatory explorations of alternative futures: Using narrative theories of change
RICK DAVIES, LARA MANI, AND TOM HOBSON
23 Constructing a living theory of change in fluid and volatile environments: Grounded on context, problem, and evidence
HUR HASSNAIN
24 Flipping the script on programme theories: Advancing towards transformative theories of change
SEBASTIAN LEMIRE
25 Theory-based evaluation approaches can enable online project success
STEVE MONTAGUE, HELOISE EMDON, AND EVA GRABINSKI
26 Theory of change as a tool for tracking Intensive Family Programme developments in Whitetown
JANE MULCAHY, CATHERINE NAUGHTON, AND SEÁN REDMOND
PART 7: Conclusions around theories of change in reality
ANDREW KOLEROS, MARIE-HÉLÈNE ADRIEN, AND TONY TYRRELL
Biography
Andrew Koleros is a Principal Researcher at Mathematica with 20 years of experience in designing and delivering mixed-methods evaluations and programme monitoring, evaluation and learning systems for both small-scale and largescale social and economic development projects. He brings particular expertise in using theory-based approaches that integrate complexity concepts and systems thinking into programme and evaluation design processes to address complex societal problems from safe and affordable housing to youth employment to advancing health equity. He obtained his master’s in public health from the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. He has published on his work in designing theory-based evaluation approaches in the American Journal of Evaluation, the Canadian Journal of Programme Evaluation and in multiple practitioner settings. He is a member of the American Evaluation Association, the European Evaluation Society, and the Canadian Evaluation Society.
Marie-Hélène Adrien is a senior evaluation practitioner and researcher with 35 years of experience in evaluating the performance of programmes and institutions financed by bilateral and multilateral agencies and philanthropies around the globe. Dr. Adrien is a former CEO of the consulting firm Universalia Management Group in Montreal and was the President of the International Development Evaluation Association (IDEAS), as well as a professor of practice at the International Development Studies Program of McGill University.
Tony Tyrrell is an independent consultant with more than 25 years’ experience in evaluation and related fields. Tony’s early experience in evaluation was with the European Social Fund Evaluation Unit where he produced influential evaluations on various subjects including early school leaving and local development. He later worked with a number of private consulting firms on strategic, policy, and programme evaluation and on performance management. More recently he spent six years with the Independent Evaluation Group at the World Bank Group (WBG). Tony now works as an independent consultant with various clients including the WBG, the Asian Development Bank, various governments, and private consultancies. He holds an MSc in Management (Organisation Behavior), and an MA in English Literature. Tony was co-editor (with Burt Perrin) of another book in this series, Changing Bureaucracies (2021).
"This is a welcome contribution to inquire into the uses of Theories of Change, that are nowadays ubiquitous. The authors bravely criticize a widespread approach that speaks ToC but in fact reproduces old top-down, bureaucratic, “colonial”, project-bounded attributes. Considering a ToC approach as an interactive process (dynamic, participatory and versatile) as opposed to the framing of a product, and inquiring into the many theoretical and practical aspects of it, the book is a precious guide for the evaluation of policies and programs that address the current challenges of ecological disasters, social inequalities, conflict and violence."
Nicoletta Stame, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
"In order to understand how policy interventions work and bring about change, theories of change have become the go-to-frameworks for evaluators, decision makers and other stakeholders alike. This book is both timely and insightful in its comprehensive and critical treatment of the subject. It brings together a sizable, well-curated collection of short essays by a diverse group of experts. I highly recommend this book to anyone who seeks to better understand how to make sense of policy interventions in their contexts with limited data, resources and time. Because let us not forget: not only in evaluation but in policy design and implementation more broadly, there is nothing as practical as a good theory."
Jos Vaessen, Evaluation Adviser, Independent Evaluation Group, World Bank
